A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
